CFA Society Alabama was thrilled to team up with the Tampa chapter to host Courtney Rosenberger and her insights on the financial markets' relation to the upcoming election.
Event held: 10/8/2020 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM CST
On October 8, 2020, the CFA Society Alabama had the pleasure of watching a web presentation entitled Policy and Market Implications of the 2020 Election, from Courtney Rosenberger of Strategas, an international macroeconomic research firm. Ms. Rosenberger said that performance of the S&P 500 has predicted the winner of the Presidential election in 87% of elections since 1936.
Ms. Rosenberger told CFA Society Alabama members that swing state polls and betting odds predict a “Blue Wave”. She said that this would be constructive for bonds, companies negatively impacted by trade, renewable energy, electric vehicle manufacturers, infrastructure firms, healthcare, housing, and Cannabis companies - But negative for stocks overall, the US Dollar, pharma and biotech, fossil fuels, banks, big tech, and companies which benefited from the 2017 tax reform.
Ms. Rosenberger said that the Biden Campaign corporate tax increases are already priced into the market. Ms. Rosenberger finalized her comments by pointing out that the financial markets are not partisan, as S&P 500 returns have been relatively stable through most Presidential and legislative party combinations since 1933.